Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7,532.97 - $14,675.43$13,753.03
Multi-Stage$2,293.22 - $2,509.70$2,399.47
Blended Fair Value$8,076.25
Current Price$1,930.00
Upside318.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS61.14%22.20%28.6824.0618.789.3019.412.645.774.354.353.85
YoY Growth--19.20%28.12%101.94%-52.09%635.23%-54.25%32.64%0.00%12.99%-0.35%
Dividend Yield--1.40%0.83%0.65%0.61%2.16%0.33%0.64%0.71%0.84%0.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,064,186.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,416,401.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,647,785.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)612,837.20383,023.25229,813.95
Cash Retained (M)1,647,785.001,647,785.001,647,785.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-612,837.20-383,023.25-229,813.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,034,947.801,264,761.751,417,971.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)41,524.5041,524.5041,524.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share24.9230.4634.15
LTM Dividend per Share34.1134.1134.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share24.9230.4634.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend59.0364.5768.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7,532.97$13,753.03$14,675.43
Upside / Downside290.31%612.59%660.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,064,186.003,263,358.093,475,476.373,701,382.333,941,972.184,198,200.374,324,146.38
Payout Ratio46.22%54.98%63.73%72.49%81.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,416,401.001,794,178.112,215,081.952,683,122.883,202,650.423,778,380.343,999,835.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,671,574.621,687,418.931,703,263.24
Year 2 PV (M)1,922,694.261,959,316.181,996,283.60
Year 3 PV (M)2,169,807.522,232,094.902,295,563.04
Year 4 PV (M)2,412,961.542,505,757.232,601,204.03
Year 5 PV (M)2,652,202.932,780,305.332,913,310.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)84,395,626.5288,471,966.8392,704,318.29
Equity Value (M)95,224,867.3899,636,859.40104,213,942.70
Shares Outstanding (M)41,524.5041,524.5041,524.50
Fair Value$2,293.22$2,399.47$2,509.70
Upside / Downside18.82%24.32%30.04%

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