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Akzo Nobel N.V. (AKZA.AS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.48 - $52.46$39.96
Multi-Stage$57.91 - $63.51$60.66
Blended Fair Value$50.31
Current Price$59.40
Upside-15.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-23.01%3.24%2.242.002.042.122.138.293.716.901.961.64
YoY Growth--12.24%-2.00%-3.85%-0.55%-74.28%123.74%-46.28%252.38%19.57%0.36%
Dividend Yield--3.96%2.91%2.83%2.71%2.24%13.82%4.64%7.99%2.24%2.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)415.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)397.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)83.0051.8831.13
Cash Retained (M)18.0018.0018.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-83.00-51.88-31.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)-65.00-33.88-13.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)171.60171.60171.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.38-0.20-0.08
LTM Dividend per Share2.312.312.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.38-0.20-0.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.932.122.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate0.13%1.13%2.13%
Fair Value$30.48$39.96$52.46
Upside / Downside-48.68%-32.72%-11.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)415.00419.69424.44429.24434.10439.01452.18
Payout Ratio95.66%94.53%93.40%92.27%91.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)397.00396.74396.42396.04395.61395.11418.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate0.13%1.13%2.13%
Year 1 PV (M)368.89372.57376.26
Year 2 PV (M)342.72349.60356.54
Year 3 PV (M)318.36327.99337.82
Year 4 PV (M)295.68307.67320.02
Year 5 PV (M)274.58288.57303.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,337.878,762.629,204.50
Equity Value (M)9,938.1010,409.0210,898.26
Shares Outstanding (M)171.60171.60171.60
Fair Value$57.91$60.66$63.51
Upside / Downside-2.50%2.12%6.92%

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