Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Byggmästare Anders J Ahlström Holding AB (publ) (AJA-B.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.37 - $13.20$10.58
Multi-Stage$7.37 - $8.00$7.68
Blended Fair Value$9.13
Current Price$67.75
Upside-86.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.07%0.00%0.330.280.550.000.190.170.160.140.130.00
YoY Growth--18.19%-49.97%0.00%-100.00%14.31%7.69%8.35%13.26%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.52%0.44%0.75%0.00%0.37%0.46%0.38%0.52%0.56%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)22.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.572.861.72
Cash Retained (M)10.4910.4910.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.57-2.86-1.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.917.638.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)29.1429.1429.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.260.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.430.430.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.260.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.73
WACC / Discount Rate13.41%13.41%13.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.37$10.58$13.20
Upside / Downside-87.64%-84.38%-80.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)22.8724.3625.9427.6329.4331.3432.28
Payout Ratio54.16%61.33%68.50%75.66%82.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.3914.9417.7720.9124.3728.2029.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate13.41%13.41%13.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)13.0513.1713.30
Year 2 PV (M)13.5613.8214.08
Year 3 PV (M)13.9314.3314.74
Year 4 PV (M)14.1914.7315.29
Year 5 PV (M)14.3415.0315.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)145.75152.79160.10
Equity Value (M)214.81223.87233.25
Shares Outstanding (M)29.1429.1429.14
Fair Value$7.37$7.68$8.00
Upside / Downside-89.12%-88.66%-88.18%

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