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ATCO Ltd. (ACO-X.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Diversified UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41.13 - $66.11$52.41
Multi-Stage$85.25 - $93.74$89.42
Blended Fair Value$70.91
Current Price$50.78
Upside39.65%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.41%8.31%1.961.911.881.821.781.651.541.331.161.01
YoY Growth--2.33%1.90%2.93%2.50%7.53%7.51%15.33%14.50%14.91%15.15%
Dividend Yield--3.90%5.09%4.33%4.25%4.26%4.24%3.40%3.22%2.25%2.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)439.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)223.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)216.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)87.8054.8832.93
Cash Retained (M)216.00216.00216.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-87.80-54.88-32.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)128.20161.13183.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)112.49112.49112.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.141.431.63
LTM Dividend per Share1.981.981.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.141.431.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.123.413.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate-1.02%-0.02%0.98%
Fair Value$41.13$52.41$66.11
Upside / Downside-19.01%3.21%30.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)439.00438.93438.85438.78438.71438.64451.80
Payout Ratio50.80%58.64%66.48%74.32%82.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)223.00257.38291.74326.10360.44394.77417.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate-1.02%-0.02%0.98%
Year 1 PV (M)239.26241.67244.09
Year 2 PV (M)252.11257.23262.40
Year 3 PV (M)261.96269.98278.16
Year 4 PV (M)269.16280.20291.58
Year 5 PV (M)274.04288.17302.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,293.598,721.079,166.01
Equity Value (M)9,590.1010,058.3210,545.11
Shares Outstanding (M)112.49112.49112.49
Fair Value$85.25$89.42$93.74
Upside / Downside67.89%76.08%84.61%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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