Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Associated British Foods plc (ABF.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$54.71 - $106.92$75.38
Multi-Stage$51.53 - $56.34$53.89
Blended Fair Value$64.63
Current Price$18.95
Upside241.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.00%6.97%0.670.460.510.070.360.480.440.400.370.36
YoY Growth--45.51%-9.21%675.51%-81.92%-24.30%9.48%9.36%7.17%2.95%5.86%
Dividend Yield--2.86%2.30%4.01%0.33%1.79%2.10%1.90%1.20%1.22%1.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,492.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)825.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,667.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)498.40311.50186.90
Cash Retained (M)1,667.001,667.001,667.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-498.40-311.50-186.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,168.601,355.501,480.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)751.31751.31751.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.561.801.97
LTM Dividend per Share1.101.101.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.561.801.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.652.903.07
WACC / Discount Rate8.94%8.94%8.94%
Growth Rate3.90%4.90%5.90%
Fair Value$54.71$75.38$106.92
Upside / Downside188.73%297.77%464.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,492.002,614.122,742.222,876.603,017.563,165.433,260.40
Payout Ratio33.11%44.48%55.86%67.24%78.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)825.001,162.881,531.901,934.292,372.442,848.893,015.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.94%8.94%8.94%
Growth Rate3.90%4.90%5.90%
Year 1 PV (M)1,057.281,067.461,077.64
Year 2 PV (M)1,266.311,290.811,315.53
Year 3 PV (M)1,453.751,496.131,539.32
Year 4 PV (M)1,621.131,684.451,749.60
Year 5 PV (M)1,769.921,856.751,946.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,546.6133,094.2334,702.01
Equity Value (M)38,715.0040,489.8242,331.05
Shares Outstanding (M)751.31751.31751.31
Fair Value$51.53$53.89$56.34
Upside / Downside171.93%184.39%197.32%

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