Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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NetEase, Inc. (9999.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electronic Gaming & MultimediaSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$706.96 - $2,246.13$2,104.95
Multi-Stage$299.55 - $327.77$313.40
Blended Fair Value$1,209.18
Current Price$192.47
Upside528.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.78%18.87%3.482.492.091.091.332.750.451.010.790.46
YoY Growth--39.32%19.19%91.65%-18.04%-51.58%513.85%-55.79%27.94%73.45%-25.97%
Dividend Yield--2.36%1.78%1.73%0.94%1.00%2.32%0.40%0.98%0.69%0.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)36,284.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13,232.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)23,051.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7,256.864,535.542,721.32
Cash Retained (M)23,051.3323,051.3323,051.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-7,256.86-4,535.54-2,721.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)15,794.4718,515.7920,330.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,212.663,212.663,212.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.925.766.33
LTM Dividend per Share4.124.124.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.925.766.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.049.8810.45
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$706.96$2,104.95$2,246.13
Upside / Downside267.31%993.65%1,067.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)36,284.3238,642.8041,154.5943,829.6346,678.5649,712.6751,204.05
Payout Ratio36.47%47.18%57.88%68.59%79.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13,232.9918,230.2123,821.1630,061.9237,013.3244,741.4047,363.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)16,901.5617,061.7617,221.97
Year 2 PV (M)20,475.4320,865.4321,259.11
Year 3 PV (M)23,956.4124,644.1225,344.86
Year 4 PV (M)27,346.2828,397.9429,479.65
Year 5 PV (M)30,646.7832,127.0333,663.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)843,038.10883,757.16926,034.63
Equity Value (M)962,364.561,006,853.441,053,004.14
Shares Outstanding (M)3,212.663,212.663,212.66
Fair Value$299.55$313.40$327.77
Upside / Downside55.64%62.83%70.30%

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