Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hsin Kao Gas Co.,Ltd. (9931.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$56.45 - $150.58$86.48
Multi-Stage$67.15 - $73.66$70.35
Blended Fair Value$78.41
Current Price$34.30
Upside128.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.96%4.74%1.000.281.291.190.431.111.021.020.851.11
YoY Growth--263.35%-78.57%7.69%180.80%-61.54%8.33%0.00%20.00%-23.08%75.50%
Dividend Yield--2.83%0.73%3.54%3.25%1.12%3.76%3.70%3.79%3.24%4.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)295.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)120.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)175.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)59.1836.9922.19
Cash Retained (M)175.55175.55175.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-59.18-36.99-22.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)116.36138.56153.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)120.22120.22120.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.971.151.28
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.971.151.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.972.152.28
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate2.74%3.74%4.74%
Fair Value$56.45$86.48$150.58
Upside / Downside64.59%152.12%339.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)295.92306.99318.47330.39342.75355.57366.24
Payout Ratio40.68%50.54%60.41%70.27%80.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)120.37155.16192.38232.17274.66320.02338.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate2.74%3.74%4.74%
Year 1 PV (M)144.52145.93147.33
Year 2 PV (M)166.91170.17173.47
Year 3 PV (M)187.62193.15198.79
Year 4 PV (M)206.74214.91223.32
Year 5 PV (M)224.37235.50247.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,143.307,497.767,866.17
Equity Value (M)8,073.458,457.428,856.15
Shares Outstanding (M)120.22120.22120.22
Fair Value$67.15$70.35$73.66
Upside / Downside95.78%105.09%114.76%

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