Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $26.43 - $42.61 | $33.72 |
| Multi-Stage | $52.08 - $57.15 | $54.56 |
| Blended Fair Value | $44.14 | |
| Current Price | $40.85 | |
| Upside | 8.06% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 0.20% | 1.26% | 2.02 | 2.02 | 2.02 | 2.02 | 1.90 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.90 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 6.32% | -5.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 5.26% | 6.61% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.88% | 4.90% | 4.95% | 5.05% | 4.97% | 5.88% | 5.26% | 5.19% | 5.03% | 4.78% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 952.63 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 775.46 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 177.17 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 190.53 | 119.08 | 71.45 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 177.17 | 177.17 | 177.17 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -190.53 | -119.08 | -71.45 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -13.35 | 58.09 | 105.73 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 384.54 | 384.54 | 384.54 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.03 | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.02 | 2.02 | 2.02 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.03 | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.98 | 2.17 | 2.29 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.79% | 6.79% | 6.79% |
| Growth Rate | -0.66% | 0.34% | 1.34% |
| Fair Value | $26.43 | $33.72 | $42.61 |
| Upside / Downside | -35.31% | -17.46% | 4.30% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 952.63 | 955.83 | 959.04 | 962.26 | 965.49 | 968.73 | 997.79 |
| Payout Ratio | 81.40% | 83.12% | 84.84% | 86.56% | 88.28% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 775.46 | 794.50 | 813.66 | 832.94 | 852.34 | 871.86 | 922.96 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.79% | 6.79% | 6.79% |
| Growth Rate | -0.66% | 0.34% | 1.34% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 736.59 | 744.01 | 751.42 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 699.38 | 713.53 | 727.82 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 663.77 | 684.02 | 704.68 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 629.73 | 655.47 | 682.00 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 597.21 | 627.88 | 659.80 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 16,698.71 | 17,556.32 | 18,448.81 |
| Equity Value (M) | 20,025.39 | 20,981.23 | 21,974.53 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 384.54 | 384.54 | 384.54 |
| Fair Value | $52.08 | $54.56 | $57.15 |
| Upside / Downside | 27.48% | 33.57% | 39.89% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORA | Ormat Technologies, Inc. | 0.42% | $0.48 | 21.81% |
| VLTO | Veralto Corporation | 0.42% | $0.42 | 11.39% |
| CEG | Constellation Energy Corporation | 0.41% | $1.52 | 17.38% |
| EXPE | Expedia Group, Inc. | 0.41% | $1.15 | 10.88% |
| GE | GE Aerospace | 0.40% | $1.29 | 17.08% |
| GEHCV | GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. | 0.40% | $0.23 | 5.05% |
| ATMU | Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. | 0.39% | $0.20 | 8.42% |
| BMNR | Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc. | 0.39% | $0.12 | 0.85% |
| CHDN | Churchill Downs Incorporated | 0.39% | $0.43 | 7.61% |
| PLPC | Preformed Line Products Company | 0.39% | $0.83 | 11.03% |
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | 0.38% | $1.03 | 13.77% |
| AMOT | Allied Motion Technologies Inc. | 0.38% | $0.12 | 21.85% |
| CASY | Casey's General Stores, Inc. | 0.38% | $2.09 | 12.85% |
| EA | Electronic Arts Inc. | 0.38% | $0.77 | 21.92% |
| LOB | Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. | 0.37% | $0.13 | 8.44% |
| PCG-PA | Pacific Gas and Electric Company | 0.37% | $0.08 | 6.94% |
| CTS | CTS Corporation | 0.36% | $0.16 | 8.09% |
| GVA | Granite Construction Incorporated | 0.36% | $0.43 | 12.45% |
| LCORX | Leuthold Core Investment Fund | 0.36% | $0.08 | 4.98% |
| LCRIX | Leuthold Core Investment Fund Class Institutional | 0.36% | $0.08 | 4.98% |
| UHAL | U-Haul Holding Company | 0.36% | $0.18 | 17.87% |
| BOX | Box, Inc. | 0.35% | $0.10 | 6.61% |
| HCC | Warrior Met Coal, Inc. | 0.35% | $0.31 | 47.04% |
| MCK | McKesson Corporation | 0.35% | $2.91 | 8.98% |
| CSWI | CSW Industrials, Inc. | 0.34% | $1.02 | 11.93% |
| MOG-A | Moog Inc. | 0.34% | $0.85 | 11.59% |
| SRBK | SR Bancorp, Inc. Common stock | 0.34% | $0.05 | 9.61% |
| VHAQ-UN | Viveon Health Acquisition Corp. | 0.34% | $0.04 | 17.38% |
| WWD | Woodward, Inc. | 0.34% | $1.05 | 14.70% |
| AGX | Argan, Inc. | 0.33% | $1.08 | 12.72% |
| PJT | PJT Partners Inc. | 0.33% | $0.56 | 13.70% |
| REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 0.33% | $2.59 | 6.06% |
| LPLA | LPL Financial Holdings Inc. | 0.32% | $1.16 | 11.15% |
| META | Meta Platforms, Inc. | 0.31% | $2.04 | 8.98% |
| ESAB | ESAB Corporation | 0.30% | $0.34 | 8.52% |
| POWL | Powell Industries, Inc. | 0.30% | $1.05 | 7.31% |
| VC | Visteon Corporation | 0.30% | $0.29 | 2.59% |
| WST | West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. | 0.30% | $0.83 | 12.34% |
| CASH | Pathward Financial, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.21 | 2.52% |
| NGS | Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.10 | 6.71% |
| PLUS | ePlus inc. | 0.29% | $0.25 | 5.41% |
| RVTY | Revvity, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.28 | 14.01% |
| TMO | Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | 0.28% | $1.65 | 9.48% |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology, Inc. | 0.27% | $0.24 | 8.33% |
| VNT | Vontier Corporation | 0.27% | $0.10 | 3.64% |
| DBRG | DigitalBridge Group, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.04 | 9.84% |
| FOUR | Shift4 Payments, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.16 | 7.44% |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc. | 0.26% | $0.82 | 8.01% |
| TPB | Turning Point Brands, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.29 | 10.22% |
| USB-PA | U.S. Bancorp PERP PFD SER A | 0.26% | $2.02 | 43.68% |