Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shiyue Daotian Group Co., Ltd. (9676.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.30 - $1.87$1.58
Multi-Stage$2.09 - $2.30$2.19
Blended Fair Value$1.88
Current Price$6.20
Upside-69.60%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.030.000.190.000.050.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.60%0.00%1.14%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)194.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)161.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38.9724.3514.61
Cash Retained (M)161.73161.73161.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-38.97-24.35-14.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)122.76137.37147.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,068.151,068.151,068.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate9.00%9.00%9.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.30$1.58$1.87
Upside / Downside-79.03%-74.52%-69.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)194.84192.89190.96189.05187.16185.29190.85
Payout Ratio17.00%31.60%46.20%60.80%75.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.1160.9588.22114.94141.12166.76176.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.00%9.00%9.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)55.3555.9156.48
Year 2 PV (M)72.7674.2575.76
Year 3 PV (M)86.0988.7591.47
Year 4 PV (M)95.9999.97104.07
Year 5 PV (M)103.01108.38113.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,817.061,911.672,010.19
Equity Value (M)2,230.252,338.932,451.92
Shares Outstanding (M)1,068.151,068.151,068.15
Fair Value$2.09$2.19$2.30
Upside / Downside-66.32%-64.68%-62.98%

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