Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Ferretti S.p.A. (9638.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - Recreational VehiclesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.48 - $4.95$4.20
Multi-Stage$5.49 - $6.02$5.75
Blended Fair Value$4.98
Current Price$2.69
Upside85.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.100.060.020.010.020.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--64.97%196.75%91.08%-46.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.44%2.05%0.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)173.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)66.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)107.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.7921.7513.05
Cash Retained (M)107.29107.29107.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.79-21.75-13.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)72.5085.5494.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)338.48338.48338.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.48
WACC / Discount Rate9.60%9.60%9.60%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.48$4.20$4.95
Upside / Downside29.19%56.22%84.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)173.97172.23170.51168.80167.12165.45170.41
Payout Ratio38.33%48.66%59.00%69.33%79.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)66.6883.81100.60117.03133.13148.90157.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.60%9.60%9.60%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)75.7076.4877.25
Year 2 PV (M)82.0783.7585.45
Year 3 PV (M)86.2488.9191.63
Year 4 PV (M)88.6192.2896.07
Year 5 PV (M)89.5294.1899.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,436.881,511.701,589.60
Equity Value (M)1,859.021,947.302,039.04
Shares Outstanding (M)338.48338.48338.48
Fair Value$5.49$5.75$6.02
Upside / Downside104.17%113.87%123.94%

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