Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

United Mining Industries Co. (9583.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.87 - $26.20$21.19
Multi-Stage$40.28 - $44.29$42.25
Blended Fair Value$31.72
Current Price$40.00
Upside-20.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%1.401.900.451.190.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---26.32%322.22%-62.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.18%7.57%1.48%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)25.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.013.131.88
Cash Retained (M)4.754.754.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.01-3.13-1.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.261.622.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14.0014.0014.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.120.21
LTM Dividend per Share1.451.451.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.120.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.431.571.66
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$16.87$21.19$26.20
Upside / Downside-57.83%-47.04%-34.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)25.0524.8024.5524.3124.0623.8224.54
Payout Ratio81.04%82.83%84.62%86.41%88.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.3020.5420.7821.0021.2321.4422.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)19.1319.3219.52
Year 2 PV (M)18.0118.3818.75
Year 3 PV (M)16.9517.4818.01
Year 4 PV (M)15.9516.6117.30
Year 5 PV (M)15.0015.7816.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)478.93503.87529.84
Equity Value (M)563.98591.45620.02
Shares Outstanding (M)14.0014.0014.00
Fair Value$40.28$42.25$44.29
Upside / Downside0.71%5.62%10.72%

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