Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Ame Company For Medical Supplies (9527.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DistributionSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$66.55 - $102.69$83.34
Multi-Stage$147.55 - $162.54$154.90
Blended Fair Value$119.12
Current Price$127.50
Upside-6.57%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%2.002.001.750.230.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---0.01%14.20%665.63%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.36%3.30%4.94%0.35%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)50.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)36.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.096.313.79
Cash Retained (M)36.4736.4736.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.09-6.31-3.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.3830.1732.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.007.007.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.774.314.67
LTM Dividend per Share2.002.002.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.774.314.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.776.316.67
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$66.55$83.34$102.69
Upside / Downside-47.81%-34.64%-19.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)50.4749.9749.4748.9748.4848.0049.44
Payout Ratio27.73%40.19%52.64%65.09%77.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.0020.0826.0431.8837.6043.2045.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)18.6718.8619.05
Year 2 PV (M)22.5022.9623.43
Year 3 PV (M)25.6026.3927.20
Year 4 PV (M)28.0729.2330.43
Year 5 PV (M)29.9831.5433.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)908.02955.301,004.53
Equity Value (M)1,032.831,084.281,137.80
Shares Outstanding (M)7.007.007.00
Fair Value$147.55$154.90$162.54
Upside / Downside15.72%21.49%27.48%

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