Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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KDDI Corporation (9433.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,340.76 - $4,078.75$3,084.12
Multi-Stage$3,999.96 - $4,393.96$4,193.18
Blended Fair Value$3,638.65
Current Price$2,360.50
Upside54.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.22%8.64%72.5875.2972.6468.6669.8365.0257.6155.6346.9141.20
YoY Growth---3.59%3.64%5.81%-1.68%7.39%12.87%3.55%18.58%13.88%30.03%
Dividend Yield--2.93%3.47%3.26%3.20%4.03%4.02%4.18%3.67%3.15%2.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)712,198.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)290,382.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)421,816.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)142,439.6089,024.7553,414.85
Cash Retained (M)421,816.00421,816.00421,816.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-142,439.60-89,024.75-53,414.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)279,376.40332,791.25368,401.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,952.503,952.503,952.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share70.6884.2093.21
LTM Dividend per Share73.4773.4773.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share70.6884.2093.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend144.15157.67166.67
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate0.47%1.47%2.47%
Fair Value$2,340.76$3,084.12$4,078.75
Upside / Downside-0.84%30.66%72.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)712,198.00722,696.53733,349.81744,160.14755,129.82766,261.21789,249.04
Payout Ratio40.77%50.62%60.46%70.31%80.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)290,382.00365,815.40443,409.63523,212.00605,270.76689,635.08730,055.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate0.47%1.47%2.47%
Year 1 PV (M)339,588.29342,968.15346,348.01
Year 2 PV (M)382,108.38389,752.34397,472.00
Year 3 PV (M)418,552.43431,174.55444,047.91
Year 4 PV (M)449,482.29467,645.68486,354.05
Year 5 PV (M)475,415.10499,549.33524,653.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,744,712.1614,442,456.4315,168,253.86
Equity Value (M)15,809,858.6516,573,546.4817,367,129.74
Shares Outstanding (M)3,952.503,952.503,952.50
Fair Value$3,999.96$4,193.18$4,393.96
Upside / Downside69.45%77.64%86.15%

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