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Definitive Analysis

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Conexio Corporation (9422.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$901.37 - $1,461.51$1,152.85
Multi-Stage$1,056.79 - $1,156.34$1,105.64
Blended Fair Value$1,129.24
Current Price$1,908.00
Upside-40.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS6.32%10.22%70.0160.0260.0265.0259.9951.5244.4833.7332.2526.47
YoY Growth--16.65%0.00%-7.70%8.38%16.44%15.83%31.88%4.57%21.88%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.27%4.00%4.22%4.58%3.11%2.67%3.47%2.54%3.64%2.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,616.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,179.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,437.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)723.20452.00271.20
Cash Retained (M)2,437.002,437.002,437.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-723.20-452.00-271.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,713.801,985.002,165.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)44.7444.7444.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share38.3144.3748.41
LTM Dividend per Share26.3526.3526.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share38.3144.3748.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend64.6670.7274.76
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate2.15%3.15%4.15%
Fair Value$901.37$1,152.85$1,461.51
Upside / Downside-52.76%-39.58%-23.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,616.003,729.873,847.323,968.484,093.454,222.354,349.02
Payout Ratio32.61%44.08%55.56%67.04%78.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,179.001,644.282,137.692,660.553,214.213,800.114,022.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate2.15%3.15%4.15%
Year 1 PV (M)1,487.381,501.941,516.50
Year 2 PV (M)1,749.201,783.611,818.36
Year 3 PV (M)1,969.302,027.702,087.25
Year 4 PV (M)2,152.102,237.622,325.66
Year 5 PV (M)2,301.602,416.492,535.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)37,618.6439,496.4041,448.42
Equity Value (M)47,278.2149,463.7751,732.11
Shares Outstanding (M)44.7444.7444.74
Fair Value$1,056.79$1,105.64$1,156.34
Upside / Downside-44.61%-42.05%-39.40%

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