Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ANA Holdings Inc. (9202.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,727.55 - $6,441.42$4,894.80
Multi-Stage$5,775.06 - $6,341.50$6,052.87
Blended Fair Value$5,473.83
Current Price$2,861.00
Upside91.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-1.30%8.43%46.150.000.000.000.0049.2539.4041.2434.3227.42
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%25.00%-4.46%20.17%25.15%33.53%
Dividend Yield--1.63%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.01%1.09%1.01%0.88%0.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)148,334.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47,042.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)101,292.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29,666.8018,541.7511,125.05
Cash Retained (M)101,292.00101,292.00101,292.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-29,666.80-18,541.75-11,125.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)71,625.2082,750.2590,166.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)509.70509.70509.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share140.52162.35176.90
LTM Dividend per Share92.2992.2992.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share140.52162.35176.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend232.82254.64269.20
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate0.82%1.82%2.82%
Fair Value$3,727.55$4,894.80$6,441.42
Upside / Downside30.29%71.09%125.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)148,334.00151,027.21153,769.32156,561.21159,403.79162,297.99167,166.93
Payout Ratio31.71%43.37%55.03%66.69%78.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47,042.0065,501.7984,616.39104,403.51124,881.26146,068.19154,629.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate0.82%1.82%2.82%
Year 1 PV (M)60,551.7561,152.3761,752.98
Year 2 PV (M)72,310.5373,752.1675,208.01
Year 3 PV (M)82,477.5384,956.2787,484.17
Year 4 PV (M)91,199.2794,871.9298,654.40
Year 5 PV (M)98,610.52103,599.15108,787.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,538,403.692,666,819.432,800,380.53
Equity Value (M)2,943,553.303,085,151.293,232,267.75
Shares Outstanding (M)509.70509.70509.70
Fair Value$5,775.06$6,052.87$6,341.50
Upside / Downside101.85%111.56%121.65%

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