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Japan Logistics Fund, Inc. (8967.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - IndustrialSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$70,827.96 - $108,780.40$88,517.30
Multi-Stage$161,790.31 - $177,689.54$169,585.35
Blended Fair Value$129,051.33
Current Price$93,800.00
Upside37.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%3,520.383,494.143,422.313,145.684,759.210.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.75%2.10%8.79%-33.90%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.92%4.09%3.42%2.93%4.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)21,684.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19,738.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,945.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,336.902,710.561,626.34
Cash Retained (M)1,945.661,945.661,945.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,336.90-2,710.56-1,626.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2,391.24-764.90319.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.782.782.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share-859.60-274.97114.79
LTM Dividend per Share7,095.717,095.717,095.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share-859.60-274.97114.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend6,236.106,820.747,210.50
WACC / Discount Rate6.63%6.63%6.63%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$70,827.96$88,517.30$108,780.40
Upside / Downside-24.49%-5.63%15.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)21,684.4921,467.6521,252.9721,040.4420,830.0420,621.7421,240.39
Payout Ratio91.03%90.82%90.62%90.41%90.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19,738.8419,497.3319,258.6919,022.8718,789.8418,559.5619,647.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.63%6.63%6.63%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)18,100.6018,285.3018,470.00
Year 2 PV (M)16,598.2416,938.7117,282.63
Year 3 PV (M)15,220.5015,691.2016,171.51
Year 4 PV (M)13,957.0514,535.5015,131.75
Year 5 PV (M)12,798.4113,464.8514,158.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)373,393.53392,837.00413,082.14
Equity Value (M)450,068.32471,752.56494,296.80
Shares Outstanding (M)2.782.782.78
Fair Value$161,790.31$169,585.35$177,689.54
Upside / Downside72.48%80.79%89.43%

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