Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Raysum Co., Ltd. (8890.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31,580.26 - $68,817.98$64,492.52
Multi-Stage$10,460.68 - $11,445.48$10,944.05
Blended Fair Value$37,718.29
Current Price$3,420.00
Upside1,002.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.94%0.00%54.7147.115.1659.5160.2563.5246.4535.2328.780.00
YoY Growth--16.12%813.51%-91.33%-1.21%-5.16%36.76%31.85%22.40%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.60%1.59%0.46%7.14%6.35%6.26%2.85%3.72%4.08%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,931.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,970.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,961.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,986.201,241.38744.83
Cash Retained (M)4,961.004,961.004,961.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,986.20-1,241.38-744.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,974.803,719.634,216.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)28.7028.7028.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share103.65129.61146.91
LTM Dividend per Share173.17173.17173.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share103.65129.61146.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend276.83302.78320.08
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$31,580.26$64,492.52$68,817.98
Upside / Downside823.40%1,785.75%1,912.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,931.0010,576.5211,263.9911,996.1512,775.9013,606.3314,014.52
Payout Ratio50.05%58.04%66.03%74.02%82.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,970.006,138.217,437.298,879.3210,477.3912,245.7012,963.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,713.505,767.655,821.81
Year 2 PV (M)6,443.706,566.436,690.32
Year 3 PV (M)7,160.777,366.337,575.79
Year 4 PV (M)7,864.908,167.368,478.47
Year 5 PV (M)8,556.258,969.529,398.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)264,475.00277,249.24290,512.38
Equity Value (M)300,214.12314,086.54328,477.38
Shares Outstanding (M)28.7028.7028.70
Fair Value$10,460.68$10,944.05$11,445.48
Upside / Downside205.87%220.00%234.66%

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