Definitive Analysis
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Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (82800.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$356.84 - $1,367.99$1,022.45
Multi-Stage$166.38 - $182.18$174.13
Blended Fair Value$598.29
Current Price$24.52
Upside2,340.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.21%10.53%0.850.680.640.390.420.440.460.460.410.38
YoY Growth--25.40%5.46%66.86%-8.32%-3.94%-5.41%0.91%12.79%7.37%21.17%
Dividend Yield--3.62%3.94%3.12%1.41%1.24%1.67%1.32%1.21%1.48%1.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)44,993.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,783.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)39,209.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8,998.635,624.143,374.49
Cash Retained (M)39,209.8639,209.8639,209.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-8,998.63-5,624.14-3,374.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)30,211.2333,585.7135,835.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,540.996,540.996,540.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.625.135.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.880.880.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.625.135.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.506.026.36
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$356.84$1,022.45$1,367.99
Upside / Downside1,355.31%4,069.84%5,479.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)44,993.1447,917.6951,032.3454,349.4557,882.1661,644.5063,493.84
Payout Ratio12.85%28.28%43.71%59.14%74.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,783.2813,552.5422,307.3732,143.0743,163.1555,480.0558,731.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)12,532.1312,650.9212,769.71
Year 2 PV (M)19,074.6619,437.9819,804.72
Year 3 PV (M)25,415.5726,145.1626,888.58
Year 4 PV (M)31,559.4932,773.1834,021.54
Year 5 PV (M)37,510.9339,322.7241,203.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)962,203.611,008,678.411,056,931.90
Equity Value (M)1,088,296.381,139,008.361,191,620.30
Shares Outstanding (M)6,540.996,540.996,540.99
Fair Value$166.38$174.13$182.18
Upside / Downside578.55%610.17%642.97%

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