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Definitive Analysis

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Marui Group Co., Ltd. (8252.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,618.07 - $5,146.05$3,615.01
Multi-Stage$3,914.32 - $4,291.89$4,099.54
Blended Fair Value$3,857.27
Current Price$3,174.00
Upside21.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS10.74%14.77%107.4983.6660.5460.6155.5764.5352.0043.7535.1329.66
YoY Growth--28.49%38.19%-0.11%9.06%-13.89%24.11%18.85%24.54%18.46%9.42%
Dividend Yield--3.51%3.64%2.41%2.55%2.66%3.32%2.32%1.87%2.12%2.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)29,264.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19,523.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)9,741.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,852.803,658.002,194.80
Cash Retained (M)9,741.009,741.009,741.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,852.80-3,658.00-2,194.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,888.206,083.007,546.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)181.78181.78181.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share21.3933.4641.51
LTM Dividend per Share107.40107.40107.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share21.3933.4641.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend128.79140.86148.91
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate1.60%2.60%3.60%
Fair Value$2,618.07$3,615.01$5,146.05
Upside / Downside-17.52%13.89%62.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)29,264.0030,024.6430,805.0431,605.7332,427.2433,270.0934,268.20
Payout Ratio66.71%71.37%76.03%80.69%85.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19,523.0021,428.7923,420.4625,501.2027,674.2729,943.0831,698.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate1.60%2.60%3.60%
Year 1 PV (M)19,906.6820,102.6120,298.55
Year 2 PV (M)20,211.4720,611.2921,015.03
Year 3 PV (M)20,443.9121,053.5421,675.16
Year 4 PV (M)20,610.1421,433.6222,281.55
Year 5 PV (M)20,715.8321,755.5922,836.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)609,667.98640,268.02672,084.60
Equity Value (M)711,556.01745,224.67780,191.56
Shares Outstanding (M)181.78181.78181.78
Fair Value$3,914.32$4,099.54$4,291.89
Upside / Downside23.32%29.16%35.22%

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