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Definitive Analysis

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Nagano Keiki Co., Ltd. (7715.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7,821.64 - $27,388.07$12,923.63
Multi-Stage$4,894.42 - $5,356.08$5,121.03
Blended Fair Value$9,022.33
Current Price$2,060.00
Upside337.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS16.00%15.86%46.9638.2834.2122.1222.3822.3527.4420.2520.2717.87
YoY Growth--22.69%11.88%54.68%-1.19%0.13%-18.52%35.50%-0.12%13.45%65.78%
Dividend Yield--2.36%1.11%1.45%1.99%2.05%2.29%3.58%1.66%2.64%3.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,335.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)217.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,118.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,067.11666.94400.17
Cash Retained (M)5,118.235,118.235,118.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,067.11-666.94-400.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,051.124,451.294,718.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19.1019.1019.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share212.09233.04247.01
LTM Dividend per Share11.3811.3811.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share212.09233.04247.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend223.47244.42258.38
WACC / Discount Rate8.51%8.51%8.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7,821.64$12,923.63$27,388.07
Upside / Downside279.69%527.36%1,229.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,335.545,682.356,051.706,445.066,863.997,310.157,529.46
Payout Ratio4.07%21.26%38.44%55.63%72.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)217.311,207.972,326.503,585.334,997.996,579.146,964.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.51%8.51%8.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,102.741,113.191,123.64
Year 2 PV (M)1,938.811,975.742,013.02
Year 3 PV (M)2,727.592,805.892,885.67
Year 4 PV (M)3,471.053,604.533,741.83
Year 5 PV (M)4,171.104,372.574,581.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)80,076.8183,944.5587,960.32
Equity Value (M)93,488.0997,816.46102,306.22
Shares Outstanding (M)19.1019.1019.10
Fair Value$4,894.42$5,121.03$5,356.08
Upside / Downside137.59%148.59%160.00%

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