Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Subaru Corporation (7270.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8,153.25 - $18,132.81$11,770.26
Multi-Stage$8,900.80 - $9,757.72$9,321.23
Blended Fair Value$10,545.74
Current Price$2,515.50
Upside319.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-6.55%4.66%107.2088.8868.9758.5258.54150.45150.46150.38151.90115.78
YoY Growth--20.61%28.87%17.85%-0.03%-61.09%-0.01%0.05%-1.00%31.20%70.26%
Dividend Yield--4.26%2.62%2.55%2.43%2.67%6.71%5.50%4.66%4.01%3.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)308,904.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)83,915.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)224,989.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)61,780.8038,613.0023,167.80
Cash Retained (M)224,989.00224,989.00224,989.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-61,780.80-38,613.00-23,167.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)163,208.20186,376.00201,821.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)733.63733.63733.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share222.47254.05275.10
LTM Dividend per Share114.38114.38114.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share222.47254.05275.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend336.85368.43389.48
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate3.00%4.00%5.00%
Fair Value$8,153.25$11,770.26$18,132.81
Upside / Downside224.12%367.91%620.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)308,904.00321,245.95334,081.00347,428.87361,310.04375,745.81387,018.18
Payout Ratio27.17%39.73%52.30%64.87%77.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)83,915.00127,638.46174,721.82225,363.76279,773.49338,171.23357,991.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate3.00%4.00%5.00%
Year 1 PV (M)117,865.12119,009.49120,153.87
Year 2 PV (M)148,989.15151,896.31154,831.57
Year 3 PV (M)177,457.89182,677.15187,997.75
Year 4 PV (M)203,433.06211,449.54219,700.64
Year 5 PV (M)227,067.71238,307.05249,987.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,655,043.765,934,955.626,225,843.36
Equity Value (M)6,529,856.696,838,295.167,158,514.28
Shares Outstanding (M)733.63733.63733.63
Fair Value$8,900.80$9,321.23$9,757.72
Upside / Downside253.84%270.55%287.90%

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