Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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J-Lease Co.,Ltd. (7187.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13,261.83 - $25,301.91$23,711.59
Multi-Stage$3,881.12 - $4,252.83$4,063.54
Blended Fair Value$13,887.57
Current Price$1,341.00
Upside935.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%44.8334.8324.859.860.000.002.201.210.000.00
YoY Growth--28.73%40.13%151.98%0.00%0.00%-100.00%82.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.34%2.55%2.23%0.99%0.00%0.00%1.37%0.33%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,283.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)200.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,082.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)456.61285.38171.23
Cash Retained (M)2,082.192,082.192,082.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-456.61-285.38-171.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,625.581,796.811,910.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)17.9517.9517.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share90.59100.13106.49
LTM Dividend per Share11.1911.1911.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share90.59100.13106.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend101.78111.32117.68
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$13,261.83$23,711.59$25,301.91
Upside / Downside888.95%1,668.20%1,786.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,283.072,431.472,589.512,757.832,937.093,128.003,221.84
Payout Ratio8.80%25.04%41.28%57.52%73.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)200.87608.811,068.921,586.292,166.392,815.202,980.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)567.30572.67578.05
Year 2 PV (M)928.13945.81963.65
Year 3 PV (M)1,283.431,320.271,357.81
Year 4 PV (M)1,633.261,696.071,760.68
Year 5 PV (M)1,977.702,073.222,172.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)63,257.2366,312.5869,484.86
Equity Value (M)69,647.0472,920.6276,317.45
Shares Outstanding (M)17.9517.9517.95
Fair Value$3,881.12$4,063.54$4,252.83
Upside / Downside189.42%203.02%217.14%

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