Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Japan Post Insurance Co., Ltd. (7181.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,877.69 - $2,539.19$2,216.11
Multi-Stage$5,448.34 - $6,040.36$5,738.10
Blended Fair Value$3,977.10
Current Price$4,193.00
Upside-5.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-10.08%8.48%100.5694.4395.14160.8456.69171.06108.1395.3988.9865.02
YoY Growth--6.49%-0.75%-40.85%183.72%-66.86%58.20%13.36%7.21%36.85%45.92%
Dividend Yield--3.08%3.00%4.39%7.41%2.76%12.11%5.41%4.19%3.59%3.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)154,447.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37,933.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)116,514.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30,889.4019,305.8811,583.53
Cash Retained (M)116,514.00116,514.00116,514.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-30,889.40-19,305.88-11,583.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)85,624.6097,208.13104,930.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)377.22377.22377.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share226.99257.70278.17
LTM Dividend per Share100.56100.56100.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share226.99257.70278.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend327.55358.26378.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate-9.12%-8.12%-7.12%
Fair Value$1,877.69$2,216.11$2,539.19
Upside / Downside-55.22%-47.15%-39.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)154,447.00141,907.64130,386.34119,800.44110,073.99101,137.23104,171.34
Payout Ratio24.56%37.65%50.74%63.82%76.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37,933.0053,425.9966,153.2376,461.6984,660.2391,023.5096,358.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate-9.12%-8.12%-7.12%
Year 1 PV (M)49,510.1950,054.9750,599.74
Year 2 PV (M)56,811.3358,068.4559,339.32
Year 3 PV (M)60,851.2962,882.1864,957.77
Year 4 PV (M)62,437.7665,231.5668,118.08
Year 5 PV (M)62,210.4665,709.2469,363.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,763,398.121,862,573.501,966,161.71
Equity Value (M)2,055,219.152,164,519.902,278,540.33
Shares Outstanding (M)377.22377.22377.22
Fair Value$5,448.34$5,738.10$6,040.36
Upside / Downside29.94%36.85%44.06%

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