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Definitive Analysis

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IHI Corporation (7013.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,371.77 - $23,313.68$19,797.64
Multi-Stage$11,122.39 - $12,254.18$11,677.28
Blended Fair Value$15,737.46
Current Price$2,760.00
Upside470.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.03%0.91%14.3014.2911.434.292.8110.188.724.360.028.72
YoY Growth--0.07%25.06%166.68%52.23%-72.36%16.77%100.02%28,775.00%-99.83%-33.25%
Dividend Yield--0.64%2.02%2.06%0.83%0.75%4.58%2.35%0.79%0.00%2.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)129,343.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18,228.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)111,115.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25,868.6016,167.889,700.73
Cash Retained (M)111,115.00111,115.00111,115.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-25,868.60-16,167.88-9,700.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)85,246.4094,947.13101,414.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,059.711,059.711,059.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share80.4489.6095.70
LTM Dividend per Share17.2017.2017.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share80.4489.6095.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend97.64106.80112.90
WACC / Discount Rate2.80%2.80%2.80%
Growth Rate1.25%2.25%3.25%
Fair Value$6,371.77$19,797.64$23,313.68
Upside / Downside130.86%617.31%744.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)129,343.00132,251.45135,225.31138,266.03141,375.13144,554.15148,890.77
Payout Ratio14.09%29.27%44.46%59.64%74.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18,228.0038,715.5760,115.3082,457.86105,774.83130,098.73137,723.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.80%2.80%2.80%
Growth Rate1.25%2.25%3.25%
Year 1 PV (M)37,292.6537,660.9838,029.31
Year 2 PV (M)55,777.6656,884.9058,003.01
Year 3 PV (M)73,696.1875,901.4478,150.25
Year 4 PV (M)91,061.1094,712.2798,472.16
Year 5 PV (M)107,885.05113,319.06118,969.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,420,830.8411,996,081.5412,594,281.84
Equity Value (M)11,786,543.4712,374,560.1812,985,906.43
Shares Outstanding (M)1,059.711,059.711,059.71
Fair Value$11,122.39$11,677.28$12,254.18
Upside / Downside302.99%323.09%343.99%

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