Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Mitsui E&S Holdings Co., Ltd. (7003.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,036.69 - $1,387.05$1,217.44
Multi-Stage$2,018.58 - $2,232.51$2,123.33
Blended Fair Value$1,670.39
Current Price$4,475.00
Upside-62.67%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS313.10%-3.12%11.927.820.000.000.000.010.0323.9431.9115.98
YoY Growth--52.47%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-66.67%-99.88%-24.97%99.75%-2.42%
Dividend Yield--0.42%0.53%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.65%1.99%1.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)24,321.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,002.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)22,319.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,864.203,040.131,824.08
Cash Retained (M)22,319.0022,319.0022,319.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,864.20-3,040.13-1,824.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)17,454.8019,278.8820,494.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)100.90100.90100.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share172.98191.06203.11
LTM Dividend per Share19.8419.8419.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share172.98191.06203.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend192.82210.90222.95
WACC / Discount Rate8.99%8.99%8.99%
Growth Rate-8.10%-7.10%-6.10%
Fair Value$1,036.69$1,217.44$1,387.05
Upside / Downside-76.83%-72.79%-69.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)24,321.0022,593.7320,989.1319,498.4918,113.7216,827.2917,332.11
Payout Ratio8.23%24.59%40.94%57.29%73.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,002.005,554.738,592.7311,171.2013,340.0915,144.5616,032.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.99%8.99%8.99%
Growth Rate-8.10%-7.10%-6.10%
Year 1 PV (M)5,041.645,096.505,151.36
Year 2 PV (M)7,078.637,233.527,390.09
Year 3 PV (M)8,352.698,628.348,909.99
Year 4 PV (M)9,053.039,453.569,867.23
Year 5 PV (M)9,328.279,846.9710,388.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)164,829.62173,995.00183,563.64
Equity Value (M)203,683.88214,253.89225,270.80
Shares Outstanding (M)100.90100.90100.90
Fair Value$2,018.58$2,123.33$2,232.51
Upside / Downside-54.89%-52.55%-50.11%

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