Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Puya Semiconductor (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. (688766.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.97 - $11.76$9.79
Multi-Stage$10.90 - $11.94$11.41
Blended Fair Value$10.60
Current Price$112.28
Upside-90.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS2.03%0.00%0.160.000.310.000.000.150.010.000.000.00
YoY Growth--5,403.28%-99.04%0.00%-100.00%-99.18%1,550.41%350.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.21%0.01%0.51%0.00%0.00%0.12%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)126.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)81.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.3415.849.50
Cash Retained (M)81.4281.4281.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.34-15.84-9.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)56.0865.5871.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)127.61127.61127.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.440.510.56
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.440.510.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.790.870.92
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate0.03%1.03%2.03%
Fair Value$7.97$9.79$11.76
Upside / Downside-92.90%-91.28%-89.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)126.72128.02129.34130.68132.03133.39137.39
Payout Ratio35.74%46.60%57.45%68.30%79.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45.2959.6574.3089.25104.50120.05127.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate0.03%1.03%2.03%
Year 1 PV (M)53.6954.2354.77
Year 2 PV (M)60.2061.4162.63
Year 3 PV (M)65.0967.0669.07
Year 4 PV (M)68.5971.3874.24
Year 5 PV (M)70.9374.5478.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,072.741,127.441,184.35
Equity Value (M)1,391.231,456.061,523.37
Shares Outstanding (M)127.61127.61127.61
Fair Value$10.90$11.41$11.94
Upside / Downside-90.29%-89.84%-89.37%

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