Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Suzhou Veichi Electric Co., Ltd. (688698.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.18 - $49.39$32.97
Multi-Stage$17.25 - $18.83$18.02
Blended Fair Value$25.50
Current Price$95.35
Upside-73.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS101.56%0.00%0.420.210.150.100.040.010.130.020.000.00
YoY Growth--97.31%41.90%43.69%133.55%254.03%-90.53%591.89%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.79%0.77%0.63%0.56%0.26%0.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)259.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)86.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)172.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.8432.4019.44
Cash Retained (M)172.35172.35172.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.84-32.40-19.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)120.51139.95152.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)210.90210.90210.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.570.660.73
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.570.660.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.981.081.14
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.18$32.97$49.39
Upside / Downside-75.69%-65.43%-48.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)259.20276.05293.99313.10333.45355.13365.78
Payout Ratio33.51%44.81%56.10%67.40%78.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)86.85123.68164.94211.04262.43319.62338.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)111.41112.47113.52
Year 2 PV (M)133.83136.38138.95
Year 3 PV (M)154.24158.67163.18
Year 4 PV (M)172.77179.41186.25
Year 5 PV (M)189.54198.69208.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,876.973,015.933,160.20
Equity Value (M)3,638.763,801.553,970.30
Shares Outstanding (M)210.90210.90210.90
Fair Value$17.25$18.02$18.83
Upside / Downside-81.91%-81.10%-80.26%

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