Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou Xili Intelligent Technology Co.,Ltd (688616.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.23 - $106.96$100.24
Multi-Stage$15.25 - $16.68$15.95
Blended Fair Value$58.09
Current Price$13.02
Upside346.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.05%17.24%0.250.180.200.190.060.060.050.110.500.07
YoY Growth--39.90%-8.70%2.76%195.49%-0.33%26.66%-54.24%-77.75%635.67%33.73%
Dividend Yield--2.27%1.96%1.85%1.98%0.52%0.42%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)95.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)42.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.0311.897.13
Cash Retained (M)42.2442.2442.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.03-11.89-7.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.2230.3535.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)176.87176.87176.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.170.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.170.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.50
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$39.23$100.24$106.96
Upside / Downside201.34%669.86%721.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)95.13101.31107.89114.91122.38130.33134.24
Payout Ratio55.59%62.47%69.35%76.24%83.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52.8863.2974.8387.60101.72117.30124.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)58.7859.3459.90
Year 2 PV (M)64.5565.7867.02
Year 3 PV (M)70.1972.2074.25
Year 4 PV (M)75.6978.6081.60
Year 5 PV (M)81.0784.9889.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,346.782,460.132,577.82
Equity Value (M)2,697.062,821.042,949.64
Shares Outstanding (M)176.87176.87176.87
Fair Value$15.25$15.95$16.68
Upside / Downside17.12%22.50%28.08%

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