Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hangzhou Kelin Electric Co., Ltd. (688611.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.21 - $3.14$2.66
Multi-Stage$3.54 - $3.87$3.70
Blended Fair Value$3.18
Current Price$40.66
Upside-92.17%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.83%0.00%0.160.160.670.000.000.360.000.000.000.20
YoY Growth--2.92%-76.63%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.49%1.06%3.38%0.00%0.00%1.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)41.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.245.153.09
Cash Retained (M)18.0618.0618.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.24-5.15-3.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.8212.9114.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)124.50124.50124.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate9.77%9.77%9.77%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.21$2.66$3.14
Upside / Downside-94.58%-93.45%-92.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)41.2140.7940.3939.9839.5839.1940.36
Payout Ratio56.17%62.93%69.70%76.47%83.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.1425.6728.1530.5732.9535.2737.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.77%9.77%9.77%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)23.1523.3923.63
Year 2 PV (M)22.8923.3623.84
Year 3 PV (M)22.4223.1223.83
Year 4 PV (M)21.7922.7023.63
Year 5 PV (M)21.0422.1323.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)329.21346.35364.20
Equity Value (M)440.51461.05482.39
Shares Outstanding (M)124.50124.50124.50
Fair Value$3.54$3.70$3.87
Upside / Downside-91.30%-90.89%-90.47%

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