Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shanghai GenTech Co., Ltd. (688596.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$164.78 - $194.14$181.94
Multi-Stage$114.71 - $125.87$120.18
Blended Fair Value$151.06
Current Price$43.37
Upside248.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS56.35%54.23%0.380.090.170.100.020.040.090.020.000.01
YoY Growth--321.96%-47.29%79.93%292.30%-40.49%-51.72%415.95%323.59%-63.14%109.53%
Dividend Yield--0.98%0.24%0.49%0.49%0.16%0.12%0.26%0.00%0.01%0.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)267.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)105.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)162.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)53.4833.4220.05
Cash Retained (M)162.16162.16162.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-53.48-33.42-20.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)108.68128.73142.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)273.92273.92273.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.470.52
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.470.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.850.90
WACC / Discount Rate1.86%1.86%1.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$164.78$181.94$194.14
Upside / Downside279.94%319.50%347.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)267.40284.78303.29323.00344.00366.36377.35
Payout Ratio39.36%49.49%59.61%69.74%79.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)105.24140.93180.80225.27274.76329.72349.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.86%1.86%1.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)137.06138.36139.66
Year 2 PV (M)171.02174.28177.57
Year 3 PV (M)207.24213.18219.25
Year 4 PV (M)245.82255.28265.00
Year 5 PV (M)286.91300.77315.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,372.3931,839.3933,362.53
Equity Value (M)31,420.4332,921.2534,479.15
Shares Outstanding (M)273.92273.92273.92
Fair Value$114.71$120.18$125.87
Upside / Downside164.48%177.11%190.23%

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