Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co., Ltd. (688533.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$89.32 - $218.34$204.62
Multi-Stage$32.00 - $35.01$33.48
Blended Fair Value$119.05
Current Price$29.32
Upside306.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS41.62%0.00%0.400.270.190.070.390.070.080.670.000.00
YoY Growth--47.57%44.16%158.50%-81.41%457.13%-13.00%-88.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.26%0.91%0.42%0.16%1.20%0.22%0.25%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)180.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)82.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)98.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.1022.5613.54
Cash Retained (M)98.3198.3198.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.10-22.56-13.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)62.2175.7584.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)164.42164.42164.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.380.460.52
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.380.460.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.880.961.02
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$89.32$204.62$218.34
Upside / Downside204.65%597.88%644.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)180.51192.25204.74218.05232.22247.32254.74
Payout Ratio45.54%54.43%63.32%72.22%81.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)82.20104.64129.65157.47188.35222.59235.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)97.3098.2299.14
Year 2 PV (M)112.09114.23116.38
Year 3 PV (M)126.59130.22133.92
Year 4 PV (M)140.79146.20151.77
Year 5 PV (M)154.70162.18169.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,629.764,853.385,085.56
Equity Value (M)5,261.235,504.435,756.71
Shares Outstanding (M)164.42164.42164.42
Fair Value$32.00$33.48$35.01
Upside / Downside9.14%14.18%19.41%

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