Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Wuxi Chipown Micro-electronics limited (688508.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$89.65 - $327.67$278.55
Multi-Stage$41.09 - $44.96$42.99
Blended Fair Value$160.77
Current Price$71.43
Upside125.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.00%20.04%0.200.240.530.260.000.060.150.060.120.07
YoY Growth---18.83%-53.75%100.53%0.00%-100.00%-60.00%150.00%-50.00%75.23%114.63%
Dividend Yield--0.40%0.72%0.66%0.30%0.00%0.05%0.11%0.05%0.09%0.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)211.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)56.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)155.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)42.3926.4915.89
Cash Retained (M)155.86155.86155.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-42.39-26.49-15.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)113.47129.37139.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)128.63128.63128.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.881.011.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.881.011.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.321.441.52
WACC / Discount Rate7.05%7.05%7.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$89.65$278.55$327.67
Upside / Downside25.50%289.96%358.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)211.93225.71240.38256.00272.64290.36299.07
Payout Ratio26.46%39.17%51.87%64.58%77.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)56.0788.40124.69165.33210.73261.33276.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.05%7.05%7.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)81.8082.5883.35
Year 2 PV (M)106.78108.81110.86
Year 3 PV (M)131.01134.77138.60
Year 4 PV (M)154.51160.46166.57
Year 5 PV (M)177.31185.88194.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,633.334,857.125,089.47
Equity Value (M)5,284.745,529.615,783.63
Shares Outstanding (M)128.63128.63128.63
Fair Value$41.09$42.99$44.96
Upside / Downside-42.48%-39.82%-37.05%

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