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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Lifotronic Technology Co., Ltd. (688389.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - SpecialtiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$78.30 - $118.66$111.20
Multi-Stage$19.71 - $21.57$20.62
Blended Fair Value$65.91
Current Price$13.82
Upside376.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS15.82%0.00%0.300.250.180.180.120.140.000.000.010.00
YoY Growth--20.86%37.68%0.00%48.33%-15.56%34,921.16%-68.16%-85.97%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.98%1.33%0.66%1.13%0.52%0.77%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)251.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)125.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)125.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)50.2031.3818.83
Cash Retained (M)125.43125.43125.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-50.20-31.38-18.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)75.2394.05106.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)420.71420.71420.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.220.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.220.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.480.520.55
WACC / Discount Rate6.14%6.14%6.14%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$78.30$111.20$118.66
Upside / Downside466.55%704.64%758.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)251.02267.33284.71303.22322.93343.92354.23
Payout Ratio50.03%58.03%66.02%74.01%82.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)125.59155.12187.96224.42264.82309.52327.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.14%6.14%6.14%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)144.77146.14147.52
Year 2 PV (M)163.72166.84169.98
Year 3 PV (M)182.43187.66193.00
Year 4 PV (M)200.91208.63216.58
Year 5 PV (M)219.15229.74240.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,381.077,737.588,107.73
Equity Value (M)8,292.058,676.599,075.54
Shares Outstanding (M)420.71420.71420.71
Fair Value$19.71$20.62$21.57
Upside / Downside42.62%49.23%56.09%

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