Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics Group Company Limited (688385.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.78 - $51.63$25.62
Multi-Stage$10.21 - $11.16$10.67
Blended Fair Value$18.15
Current Price$66.65
Upside-72.78%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%9.55%0.150.170.070.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---10.21%148.36%2,416.35%2,878.64%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.33%0.53%0.10%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)475.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)101.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)374.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)95.1359.4635.67
Cash Retained (M)374.24374.24374.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-95.13-59.46-35.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)279.11314.78338.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)814.08814.08814.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.390.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.390.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.470.510.54
WACC / Discount Rate8.63%8.63%8.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15.78$25.62$51.63
Upside / Downside-76.33%-61.56%-22.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)475.65506.56539.49574.56611.90651.68671.23
Payout Ratio21.32%35.06%48.79%62.53%76.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)101.41177.58263.23359.26466.66586.51620.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.63%8.63%8.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)161.95163.48165.02
Year 2 PV (M)218.92223.09227.29
Year 3 PV (M)272.47280.29288.26
Year 4 PV (M)322.77335.18347.95
Year 5 PV (M)369.94387.81406.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,961.817,298.077,647.20
Equity Value (M)8,307.868,687.929,082.08
Shares Outstanding (M)814.08814.08814.08
Fair Value$10.21$10.67$11.16
Upside / Downside-84.69%-83.99%-83.26%

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