Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xi'an Bright Laser Technologies Co.,Ltd. (688333.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.42 - $55.09$31.38
Multi-Stage$13.58 - $14.86$14.21
Blended Fair Value$22.79
Current Price$76.33
Upside-70.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS41.95%0.00%0.170.120.040.060.050.030.020.000.010.00
YoY Growth--39.70%202.37%-28.31%16.01%64.04%27.59%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.23%0.21%0.05%0.10%0.11%0.17%0.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)233.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)224.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)46.7029.1917.51
Cash Retained (M)224.39224.39224.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-46.70-29.19-17.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)177.69195.20206.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)271.89271.89271.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.650.720.76
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.650.720.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.690.750.79
WACC / Discount Rate9.05%9.05%9.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.42$31.38$55.09
Upside / Downside-73.25%-58.89%-27.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)233.49248.67264.83282.05300.38319.91329.50
Payout Ratio3.90%21.12%38.34%55.56%72.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.1052.52101.54156.71218.62287.92304.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.05%9.05%9.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)47.7148.1648.61
Year 2 PV (M)83.7985.3886.99
Year 3 PV (M)117.47120.84124.27
Year 4 PV (M)148.86154.59160.48
Year 5 PV (M)178.09186.70195.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,116.193,266.703,422.98
Equity Value (M)3,692.113,862.374,038.96
Shares Outstanding (M)271.89271.89271.89
Fair Value$13.58$14.21$14.86
Upside / Downside-82.21%-81.39%-80.54%

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