Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Novoray Corporation (688300.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.96 - $65.07$40.99
Multi-Stage$20.13 - $21.98$21.04
Blended Fair Value$31.01
Current Price$62.10
Upside-50.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS41.08%29.79%0.440.270.240.200.200.080.070.070.020.03
YoY Growth--66.20%9.35%21.60%-0.20%153.41%16.18%3.94%179.59%-10.70%-19.53%
Dividend Yield--1.00%0.80%0.70%0.67%1.11%0.49%0.44%0.42%0.15%0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)286.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)93.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)193.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)57.3035.8221.49
Cash Retained (M)193.38193.38193.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-57.30-35.82-21.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)136.07157.56171.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)213.52213.52213.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.640.740.81
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.640.740.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.071.171.24
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$27.96$40.99$65.07
Upside / Downside-54.98%-33.99%4.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)286.52305.15324.98346.11368.60392.56404.34
Payout Ratio32.51%44.01%55.51%67.00%78.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)93.14134.29180.38231.90289.36353.31374.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)121.43122.58123.73
Year 2 PV (M)147.49150.30153.14
Year 3 PV (M)171.46176.38181.40
Year 4 PV (M)193.46200.90208.55
Year 5 PV (M)213.59223.91234.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,451.713,618.433,791.53
Equity Value (M)4,299.154,492.504,692.97
Shares Outstanding (M)213.52213.52213.52
Fair Value$20.13$21.04$21.98
Upside / Downside-67.58%-66.12%-64.61%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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