Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Railway High-speed Electrification Equipment Corporation Limited (688285.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.71 - $0.96$0.84
Multi-Stage$1.33 - $1.47$1.40
Blended Fair Value$1.12
Current Price$8.75
Upside-87.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-12.71%0.00%0.040.080.090.040.370.080.040.450.060.00
YoY Growth---45.18%-19.15%147.51%-89.65%346.52%109.77%-91.33%665.58%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.56%1.02%1.06%0.43%3.45%0.77%0.37%4.25%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)57.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)45.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.587.244.34
Cash Retained (M)45.9245.9245.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.58-7.24-4.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)34.3338.6841.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)376.25376.25376.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate-6.76%-5.76%-4.76%
Fair Value$0.71$0.84$0.96
Upside / Downside-91.84%-90.38%-88.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)57.9254.5851.4448.4745.6843.0544.34
Payout Ratio20.73%34.58%48.44%62.29%76.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.0018.8824.9130.1934.7838.7441.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate-6.76%-5.76%-4.76%
Year 1 PV (M)17.0817.2717.45
Year 2 PV (M)20.4120.8521.29
Year 3 PV (M)22.3923.1123.86
Year 4 PV (M)23.3424.3625.41
Year 5 PV (M)23.5324.8226.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)394.31415.91438.45
Equity Value (M)501.05526.31552.62
Shares Outstanding (M)376.25376.25376.25
Fair Value$1.33$1.40$1.47
Upside / Downside-84.78%-84.01%-83.21%

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