Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xiamen Amoytop Biotech Co., Ltd. (688278.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$43.41 - $92.16$61.65
Multi-Stage$32.07 - $35.00$33.51
Blended Fair Value$47.58
Current Price$84.05
Upside-43.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS117.96%0.00%0.410.210.100.050.030.010.010.010.010.00
YoY Growth--92.49%113.00%100.00%59.85%275.28%-9.80%-6.57%-11.43%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.53%0.34%0.22%0.17%0.10%0.03%0.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)939.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)252.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)687.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)187.92117.4570.47
Cash Retained (M)687.21687.21687.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-187.92-117.45-70.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)499.30569.77616.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)406.50406.50406.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.231.401.52
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.231.401.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.852.022.14
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$43.41$61.65$92.16
Upside / Downside-48.35%-26.65%9.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)939.581,000.651,065.691,134.961,208.731,287.301,325.92
Payout Ratio26.86%39.49%52.12%64.74%77.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)252.36395.13555.39734.82935.221,158.571,226.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)355.86359.23362.60
Year 2 PV (M)450.47459.05467.71
Year 3 PV (M)536.76552.17567.87
Year 4 PV (M)615.25638.91663.25
Year 5 PV (M)686.43719.59754.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,390.1310,891.9711,413.03
Equity Value (M)13,034.9013,620.9214,228.47
Shares Outstanding (M)406.50406.50406.50
Fair Value$32.07$33.51$35.00
Upside / Downside-61.85%-60.13%-58.36%

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