Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing Roborock Technology Co., Ltd. (688169.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$132.20 - $283.28$188.36
Multi-Stage$95.50 - $104.35$99.85
Blended Fair Value$144.10
Current Price$209.78
Upside-31.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS121.24%0.00%2.781.080.630.620.600.050.170.000.000.00
YoY Growth--156.58%70.90%2.40%2.75%1,048.80%-69.77%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.60%0.63%0.48%0.43%0.20%0.06%0.13%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,542.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)196.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,345.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)308.43192.77115.66
Cash Retained (M)1,345.381,345.381,345.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-308.43-192.77-115.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,036.951,152.611,229.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)221.62221.62221.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.685.205.55
LTM Dividend per Share0.890.890.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.685.205.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.576.096.44
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$132.20$188.36$283.28
Upside / Downside-36.98%-10.21%35.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,542.131,642.361,749.121,862.811,983.892,112.852,176.23
Payout Ratio12.76%28.21%43.65%59.10%74.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)196.75463.25763.581,100.981,479.021,901.562,013.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)417.40421.36425.32
Year 2 PV (M)619.91631.71643.63
Year 3 PV (M)805.36828.48852.04
Year 4 PV (M)974.821,012.311,050.87
Year 5 PV (M)1,129.271,183.811,240.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,219.4718,051.1818,914.72
Equity Value (M)21,166.2422,128.8623,127.02
Shares Outstanding (M)221.62221.62221.62
Fair Value$95.50$99.85$104.35
Upside / Downside-54.47%-52.40%-50.26%

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