Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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China National Electric Apparatus Research Institute Co., Ltd. (688128.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$94.98 - $258.95$242.68
Multi-Stage$36.48 - $39.92$38.17
Blended Fair Value$140.42
Current Price$31.64
Upside343.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS10.89%0.00%0.450.400.350.310.310.270.230.650.300.00
YoY Growth--12.24%13.90%15.23%-0.17%14.01%18.13%-65.04%114.76%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.03%2.15%1.69%1.57%2.01%1.50%0.85%2.42%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)526.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)202.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)323.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)105.3365.8339.50
Cash Retained (M)323.98323.98323.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-105.33-65.83-39.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)218.65258.15284.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)404.44404.44404.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.540.640.70
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.540.640.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.041.141.20
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$94.98$242.68$258.95
Upside / Downside200.17%667.00%718.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)526.63560.86597.31636.14677.49721.52743.17
Payout Ratio38.48%48.78%59.09%69.39%79.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)202.65273.61352.94441.43539.93649.37687.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)254.12256.53258.94
Year 2 PV (M)304.46310.26316.11
Year 3 PV (M)353.67363.82374.17
Year 4 PV (M)401.78417.23433.13
Year 5 PV (M)448.80470.48492.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,991.3913,618.8814,270.38
Equity Value (M)14,754.2315,437.2116,145.72
Shares Outstanding (M)404.44404.44404.44
Fair Value$36.48$38.17$39.92
Upside / Downside15.30%20.64%26.17%

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