Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Willfar Information Technology Co., Ltd. (688100.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.68 - $17.52$14.45
Multi-Stage$22.83 - $25.11$23.95
Blended Fair Value$19.20
Current Price$37.60
Upside-48.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.430.330.270.230.180.000.000.400.320.00
YoY Growth--30.17%24.94%15.56%28.57%0.00%0.00%-100.00%25.13%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.15%0.96%0.88%1.10%0.85%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)682.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)254.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)427.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)136.4885.3051.18
Cash Retained (M)427.60427.60427.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-136.48-85.30-51.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)291.12342.30376.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)488.13488.13488.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.600.700.77
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.600.700.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.121.221.29
WACC / Discount Rate7.38%7.38%7.38%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$11.68$14.45$17.52
Upside / Downside-68.93%-61.58%-53.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)682.38675.56668.80662.12655.49648.94668.41
Payout Ratio37.34%47.87%58.40%68.93%79.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)254.78323.39390.60456.43520.91584.05618.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.38%7.38%7.38%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)298.11301.15304.20
Year 2 PV (M)331.93338.73345.61
Year 3 PV (M)357.55368.61379.89
Year 4 PV (M)376.17391.76407.83
Year 5 PV (M)388.80409.05430.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,390.799,879.7910,388.95
Equity Value (M)11,143.3511,689.1012,256.61
Shares Outstanding (M)488.13488.13488.13
Fair Value$22.83$23.95$25.11
Upside / Downside-39.29%-36.31%-33.22%

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