Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai MicroPort Endovascular MedTech Co., Ltd. (688016.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$121.67 - $614.68$251.77
Multi-Stage$68.96 - $75.30$72.07
Blended Fair Value$161.92
Current Price$111.60
Upside45.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS82.09%0.00%3.691.351.240.530.380.180.520.310.060.00
YoY Growth--172.10%9.52%133.33%38.46%107.94%-64.84%71.12%408.13%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.09%1.07%1.07%0.38%0.20%0.18%0.49%0.29%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)377.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)245.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)131.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)75.5647.2328.34
Cash Retained (M)131.98131.98131.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-75.56-47.23-28.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)56.4184.75103.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)122.24122.24122.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.460.690.85
LTM Dividend per Share2.012.012.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.460.690.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.472.702.86
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$121.67$251.77$614.68
Upside / Downside9.02%125.60%450.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)377.82402.38428.53456.39486.05517.64533.17
Payout Ratio65.07%70.05%75.04%80.03%85.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)245.84281.88321.57365.23413.21465.88493.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)259.41261.87264.32
Year 2 PV (M)272.34277.52282.76
Year 3 PV (M)284.65292.82301.15
Year 4 PV (M)296.36307.76319.48
Year 5 PV (M)307.50322.35337.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,009.427,347.977,699.49
Equity Value (M)8,429.668,810.299,204.97
Shares Outstanding (M)122.24122.24122.24
Fair Value$68.96$72.07$75.30
Upside / Downside-38.21%-35.42%-32.53%

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