Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Montage Technology Co., Ltd. (688008.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.19 - $24.52$20.11
Multi-Stage$20.33 - $22.27$21.28
Blended Fair Value$20.69
Current Price$154.80
Upside-86.63%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.96%0.00%0.300.300.300.300.300.260.210.000.000.00
YoY Growth---0.94%0.73%-0.11%0.11%15.95%21.88%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.38%0.65%0.43%0.44%0.49%0.32%0.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,065.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)443.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,622.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)413.20258.25154.95
Cash Retained (M)1,622.851,622.851,622.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-413.20-258.25-154.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,209.651,364.601,467.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,141.911,141.911,141.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.061.201.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.390.390.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.061.201.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.451.581.67
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate0.96%1.96%2.96%
Fair Value$16.19$20.11$24.52
Upside / Downside-89.54%-87.01%-84.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,065.992,106.462,147.722,189.792,232.682,276.422,344.71
Payout Ratio21.45%35.16%48.87%62.58%76.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)443.14740.621,049.581,370.361,703.312,048.782,168.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate0.96%1.96%2.96%
Year 1 PV (M)666.78673.38679.98
Year 2 PV (M)850.72867.66884.76
Year 3 PV (M)999.981,029.991,060.59
Year 4 PV (M)1,119.011,164.011,210.35
Year 5 PV (M)1,211.771,272.981,336.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,364.2519,291.9420,256.75
Equity Value (M)23,212.5024,299.9625,429.08
Shares Outstanding (M)1,141.911,141.911,141.91
Fair Value$20.33$21.28$22.27
Upside / Downside-86.87%-86.25%-85.61%

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