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JDV Control Valves Co., Ltd. (6843.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.71 - $73.91$52.02
Multi-Stage$58.18 - $63.76$60.92
Blended Fair Value$56.47
Current Price$59.40
Upside-4.93%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS25.04%0.00%2.482.481.761.700.810.810.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%40.63%3.50%110.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.68%4.26%2.22%3.31%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)78.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)66.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.679.795.88
Cash Retained (M)11.7511.7511.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.67-9.79-5.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)-3.921.955.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)33.6133.6133.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.120.060.17
LTM Dividend per Share1.981.981.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.120.060.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.862.042.16
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate1.52%2.52%3.52%
Fair Value$37.71$52.02$73.91
Upside / Downside-36.51%-12.43%24.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)78.3680.3382.3584.4386.5688.7491.40
Payout Ratio85.01%86.00%87.00%88.00%89.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)66.6169.0971.6574.3077.0479.8684.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate1.52%2.52%3.52%
Year 1 PV (M)64.2264.8565.48
Year 2 PV (M)61.9063.1364.36
Year 3 PV (M)59.6661.4463.26
Year 4 PV (M)57.4959.7962.16
Year 5 PV (M)55.4058.1861.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,657.001,740.231,826.78
Equity Value (M)1,955.672,047.632,143.12
Shares Outstanding (M)33.6133.6133.61
Fair Value$58.18$60.92$63.76
Upside / Downside-2.05%2.56%7.34%

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