Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Chifeng Gold (6693.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.90 - $51.07$34.02
Multi-Stage$17.45 - $19.06$18.24
Blended Fair Value$26.13
Current Price$24.90
Upside4.93%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.160.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,160.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)429.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,730.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)432.15270.09162.06
Cash Retained (M)1,730.981,730.981,730.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-432.15-270.09-162.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,298.831,460.891,568.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,711.751,711.751,711.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.760.850.92
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.760.850.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.011.101.17
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.90$34.02$51.07
Upside / Downside-4.02%36.62%105.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,160.742,301.192,450.772,610.072,779.722,960.403,049.22
Payout Ratio19.89%33.91%47.93%61.96%75.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)429.76780.371,174.741,617.092,111.972,664.362,820.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)703.03709.70716.36
Year 2 PV (M)953.45971.61989.94
Year 3 PV (M)1,182.401,216.341,250.92
Year 4 PV (M)1,391.211,444.721,499.75
Year 5 PV (M)1,581.161,657.531,736.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,056.5625,218.5026,424.91
Equity Value (M)29,867.8131,218.3932,618.71
Shares Outstanding (M)1,711.751,711.751,711.75
Fair Value$17.45$18.24$19.06
Upside / Downside-29.92%-26.76%-23.47%

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