Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Keystone Microtech Corporation (6683.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$630.76 - $3,030.23$1,366.86
Multi-Stage$348.17 - $380.24$363.92
Blended Fair Value$865.39
Current Price$386.50
Upside123.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS17.02%0.00%6.487.427.675.413.942.950.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---12.69%-3.31%41.82%37.50%33.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.98%2.59%3.69%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)419.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)273.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)145.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)83.8552.4131.45
Cash Retained (M)145.39145.39145.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-83.85-52.41-31.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)61.5392.98113.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)27.5227.5227.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.243.384.14
LTM Dividend per Share9.959.959.95
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.243.384.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.1913.3314.09
WACC / Discount Rate7.54%7.54%7.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$630.76$1,366.86$3,030.23
Upside / Downside63.20%253.65%684.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)419.27446.52475.54506.45539.37574.43591.67
Payout Ratio65.32%70.26%75.19%80.13%85.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)273.88313.72357.58405.82458.82516.99547.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.54%7.54%7.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)288.99291.73294.47
Year 2 PV (M)303.42309.20315.04
Year 3 PV (M)317.21326.32335.59
Year 4 PV (M)330.36343.07356.13
Year 5 PV (M)342.90359.46376.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,997.728,384.018,785.09
Equity Value (M)9,580.6010,013.7910,462.98
Shares Outstanding (M)27.5227.5227.52
Fair Value$348.17$363.92$380.24
Upside / Downside-9.92%-5.84%-1.62%

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