Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Geniee, Inc. (6562.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Internet Content & InformationSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$679.46 - $1,045.12$849.71
Multi-Stage$1,454.35 - $1,603.74$1,527.56
Blended Fair Value$1,188.64
Current Price$1,309.00
Upside-9.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%3.920.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.0045.54
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.23%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)961.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)50.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)911.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)192.39120.2472.15
Cash Retained (M)911.32911.32911.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-192.39-120.24-72.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)718.93791.08839.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12.9312.9312.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share55.6161.1964.91
LTM Dividend per Share3.923.923.92
(+) Excess Retained per Share55.6161.1964.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend59.5365.1168.83
WACC / Discount Rate6.59%6.59%6.59%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$679.46$849.71$1,045.12
Upside / Downside-48.09%-35.09%-20.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)961.95952.33942.81933.38924.05914.81942.25
Payout Ratio5.26%22.21%39.16%56.11%73.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)50.63211.52369.19523.68675.04823.33871.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.59%6.59%6.59%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)196.45198.45200.45
Year 2 PV (M)318.44324.97331.57
Year 3 PV (M)419.51432.48445.72
Year 4 PV (M)502.23523.04544.50
Year 5 PV (M)568.90598.53629.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,796.8417,671.4918,582.20
Equity Value (M)18,802.3719,748.9720,733.82
Shares Outstanding (M)12.9312.9312.93
Fair Value$1,454.35$1,527.56$1,603.74
Upside / Downside11.10%16.70%22.52%

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