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Definitive Analysis

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CH Biotech R&D Co., Ltd. (6534.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$512.24 - $849.12$795.75
Multi-Stage$142.17 - $155.37$148.65
Blended Fair Value$472.20
Current Price$113.00
Upside317.88%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS43.81%0.00%3.594.601.230.410.860.580.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---22.10%274.13%200.00%-52.27%47.40%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.66%5.39%1.22%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)439.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)421.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)17.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)87.8754.9232.95
Cash Retained (M)17.8517.8517.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-87.87-54.92-32.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)-70.02-37.07-15.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)102.90102.90102.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.68-0.36-0.15
LTM Dividend per Share4.104.104.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.68-0.36-0.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.423.743.95
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$512.24$795.75$849.12
Upside / Downside353.31%604.21%651.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)439.33467.89498.30530.69565.18601.92619.98
Payout Ratio95.94%94.75%93.56%92.37%91.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)421.48443.32466.22490.22515.38541.73573.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)413.51417.43421.35
Year 2 PV (M)405.62413.35421.14
Year 3 PV (M)397.82409.24420.88
Year 4 PV (M)390.10405.11420.54
Year 5 PV (M)382.47400.95420.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,639.0613,249.5313,883.36
Equity Value (M)14,628.5815,295.5915,987.40
Shares Outstanding (M)102.90102.90102.90
Fair Value$142.17$148.65$155.37
Upside / Downside25.81%31.55%37.50%

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