Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Maezawa Kyuso Industries Co.,Ltd. (6485.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,758.90 - $2,958.63$2,284.24
Multi-Stage$1,659.20 - $1,813.86$1,735.12
Blended Fair Value$2,009.68
Current Price$1,490.00
Upside34.88%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS16.56%7.99%43.8637.7737.4824.2923.2820.3822.3622.7024.3420.33
YoY Growth--16.11%0.77%54.27%4.36%14.22%-8.86%-1.49%-6.75%19.71%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.58%2.80%3.36%2.73%2.26%2.03%2.27%2.33%3.18%3.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,929.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)466.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,463.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)585.80366.13219.68
Cash Retained (M)2,463.002,463.002,463.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-585.80-366.13-219.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,877.202,096.882,243.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)20.7020.7020.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share90.67101.28108.35
LTM Dividend per Share22.5122.5122.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share90.67101.28108.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend113.18123.79130.86
WACC / Discount Rate10.51%10.51%10.51%
Growth Rate3.83%4.83%5.83%
Fair Value$1,758.90$2,284.24$2,958.63
Upside / Downside18.05%53.30%98.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,929.003,070.363,218.533,373.863,536.693,707.373,818.59
Payout Ratio15.91%30.73%45.55%60.36%75.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)466.00943.461,465.912,036.602,658.953,336.633,532.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.51%10.51%10.51%
Growth Rate3.83%4.83%5.83%
Year 1 PV (M)845.61853.75861.90
Year 2 PV (M)1,177.621,200.411,223.42
Year 3 PV (M)1,466.391,509.171,552.77
Year 4 PV (M)1,715.941,783.011,852.03
Year 5 PV (M)1,929.962,024.712,123.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,216.4428,552.6129,940.74
Equity Value (M)34,351.9735,923.6737,554.02
Shares Outstanding (M)20.7020.7020.70
Fair Value$1,659.20$1,735.12$1,813.86
Upside / Downside11.36%16.45%21.74%

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