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Definitive Analysis

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NSK Ltd. (6471.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$304.15 - $456.20$376.21
Multi-Stage$751.26 - $825.70$787.75
Blended Fair Value$581.98
Current Price$764.40
Upside-23.86%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-5.25%3.26%31.9130.6631.3820.9220.9141.7743.8335.5644.6236.42
YoY Growth--4.05%-2.27%49.98%0.06%-49.94%-4.71%23.27%-20.31%22.51%57.32%
Dividend Yield--4.70%3.86%3.42%2.87%2.23%5.23%4.40%3.11%3.18%4.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)17,997.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16,618.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,379.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,599.402,249.631,349.78
Cash Retained (M)1,379.001,379.001,379.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,599.40-2,249.63-1,349.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2,220.40-870.6329.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)490.38490.38490.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share-4.53-1.780.06
LTM Dividend per Share33.8933.8933.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share-4.53-1.780.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend29.3632.1133.95
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.84%-1.84%-0.84%
Fair Value$304.15$376.21$456.20
Upside / Downside-60.21%-50.78%-40.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)17,997.0017,665.6517,340.4117,021.1516,707.7716,400.1616,892.16
Payout Ratio92.34%91.87%91.40%90.94%90.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16,618.0016,229.4515,849.5815,478.1915,115.1014,760.1415,625.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.84%-1.84%-0.84%
Year 1 PV (M)15,078.3515,233.5415,388.74
Year 2 PV (M)13,680.9913,964.0614,250.03
Year 3 PV (M)12,412.8112,800.0413,195.24
Year 4 PV (M)11,261.8811,732.7412,218.21
Year 5 PV (M)10,217.4010,754.1411,313.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)305,750.46321,812.27338,542.10
Equity Value (M)368,401.89386,296.79404,907.53
Shares Outstanding (M)490.38490.38490.38
Fair Value$751.26$787.75$825.70
Upside / Downside-1.72%3.05%8.02%

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